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A machine learning model for predicting adverse prognostic events in patients with neurosyphilis: Results from the DEFEAT-NS study 期刊论文

编号：

BD859FAFDCF8C7300C0B07A022CF15E5
作者：

Lu, Zhen#^[1]Zou, Jun^[2];Zhang, Hanlin^[3];Zou, Meiyin^[4];Fu, Yanhua^[5];Zhang, Renfang^[6];Shi, Haoran^[4];Wu, Weibo^[7];Xue, Bichen^[6];Wang, Ruonan^[4];Yang, Xiaoyan^[5];Cai, Jing^[8];Gan, Lin^[5];Liu, Shangbin^[9];Cai, Yong^[9];Peng, Zhihang*^[10]Li, Jun*^[3]Yang, Liuqing*^[7]Chen, Jun*^[6]Zou, Huachun*^{[11,12,13,14]}
语种：

英文
期刊：

ISCIENCE ISSN：2589-0042 2026 年 29 卷 4 期 ; APR 17
收录：
摘要：

Identifying patients at highest risk of serious adverse prognostic events (AE) in neurosyphilis could enable risk-stratified treatment beyond clinical judgment. We developed machine-learning models using electronic health records from six Chinese infectious-diseases hospitals, with two centers for external validation and four for discovery. Five models incorporated demographic, clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables from 602 observations (402 discovery, 200 validation). AE occurred in 20.90% and 20.50%, respectively. DEFEAT-NS-M1 achieved AUROC 0.975 (95% CI 0.949-0.995) internally and 0.863 (0.801-0.920) externally, with Brier scores 0.027 and 0.128. Decision curve analysis demonstrated favorable clinical utility; treating 1-2 high-risk patients prevents one AE. DEFEAT-NS-M1 supports population-level risk estimation and stratified care, potentially guiding targeted monitoring and therapy. Further external validation and health-economic assessment are warranted.
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714：

Lu Zhen,Zou Jun,Zhang Hanlin, et al. A machine learning model for predicting adverse prognostic events in patients with neurosyphilis: Results from the DEFEAT-NS study [J].ISCIENCE,2026,29(4).
APA：

Lu Zhen,Zou Jun,Zhang Hanlin,Zou Meiyin,&Zou Huachun.(2026).A machine learning model for predicting adverse prognostic events in patients with neurosyphilis: Results from the DEFEAT-NS study .ISCIENCE,29(4).
MLA：

Lu Zhen, et al. "A machine learning model for predicting adverse prognostic events in patients with neurosyphilis: Results from the DEFEAT-NS study" .ISCIENCE 29,4(2026).
入库时间：

4/2/2026 9:12:19 PM
更新时间：

4/2/2026 9:12:19 PM

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